How to Tell If a Deal Is Actually a Good Deal
Five checks that separate a real discount from a price that only looks low: price history, the reference price, the same model elsewhere, total cost and the return terms.
A good deal is a lower price on something you were going to buy anyway, from a seller that lets you send it back. The percentage on the badge is the least useful number on the page. What matters is what the item usually costs, what the "was" price refers to, and what you pay in total.
The five-minute deal check
- Look at the price history A tracker shows what the item actually cost over recent months. The badge only shows what the seller wants you to compare against.
- Ask what the "was" price is A former price, a list price and another store's price are three different claims. Only the first says the seller itself charged it.
- Compare the same model Match the full model number, color and storage size before you compare prices across stores.
- Add up the total Shipping, tax, fees, subscriptions and the price per unit can turn a low sticker into an average deal.
- Read the return terms Check the return window and whether the store adjusts the price if it drops after you buy.
The badge is the seller's argument
A red "40% off" label is not a measurement. It is the seller choosing a higher number and inviting you to compare. Sometimes that higher number is a price the store really charged last month. Sometimes it is a list price almost nobody pays, or a price set for a week so that a "sale" could follow.
That is not a guess. From February 2025, Consumers' Checkbook tracked the prices of 25-plus items at each of 25 national chains, once a week for 24 weeks, and found that 21 of the 25 stores advertised "sale" prices more than half the time. When an item is on sale most weeks, the sale price is simply the price.
What a "was" price is supposed to mean
US federal law bans deceptive advertising in general terms, and the FTC explains how it applies to prices in its Guides Against Deceptive Pricing. Two passages are worth knowing.
- Former prices. A former price is a fair basis for comparison only if it is "the actual, bona fide price at which the article was offered to the public on a regular basis for a reasonably substantial period of time" (16 CFR 233.1). The Guides specifically warn about an "artificial, inflated price" set up to make a later cut look large.
- List prices. A manufacturer's suggested price means something only when it is the price at which "substantial (that is, not isolated or insignificant) sales are made" in the seller's area (16 CFR 233.3).
Some states are stricter. California's Business and Professions Code §17501 doesn't allow a former price unless it was the prevailing market price within the three months before the ad, or the ad states clearly when that price applied.
Europe went further and put a number on it. Since May 28, 2022, every announced price reduction in the EU must show the prior price, defined as "the lowest price applied by the trader during a period of time not shorter than 30 days prior to the application of the price reduction" (article 6a of Directive 98/6/EC, as reproduced in the European Commission's guidance). Italy wrote the same rule into article 17-bis of its Consumer Code, in force since April 2, 2023: the reference is the lowest price offered to all consumers in the previous 30 days.
| Rule | Applies to | What the higher price must be |
|---|---|---|
| FTC Guides, 16 CFR 233.1 | US, federal guidance | A price the seller actually charged, openly, for a reasonably substantial period, recently |
| FTC Guides, 16 CFR 233.3 | US, list or suggested price | A price at which substantial sales are made in the seller's area |
| California B&P Code §17501 | Sellers advertising in California | The prevailing market price in the three months before the ad, unless the ad states the date |
| Directive 98/6/EC art. 6a; Italy, Consumer Code art. 17-bis | EU and Italian sellers | The lowest price the seller applied in the 30 days before the reduction |
The FTC Guides describe how the FTC reads its law against deception; they are not a statute on their own. The EU and Italian rules bind the seller, not the shopper. Source: 16 CFR 233.1 and 233.3 (Cornell LII), California Legislative Information, European Commission Notice 2021/C 526/02, Normattiva; read Sep 28, 2026
None of these rules turns a sticker into proof. They tell you which question to ask: is this the price the store itself charged, recently and for a while? If the page can't answer, treat the discount as unproven.
That is why every discount badge on Deals Meridian spells out what it is measured against, such as "below the seller's list price". No published reference from the seller, no badge.
Check the price history yourself
You don't need to trust anyone's badge. Two kinds of tools show you what an item actually cost.
Google's price insights. On Google Shopping in the US, price insights show whether a price is "low, typical, or high" and how it changed in recent months, based on sellers across the web. They can also tell you when a price has just dropped to its 30-day low. Google is careful to add that the feature "doesn't predict how a price may change in the future". You can also track a product and get an email or a notification when it falls below a target price you set.
Store-specific trackers. For Amazon listings, independent trackers such as CamelCamelCamel and Keepa chart the price over months and send alerts. They are especially useful for spotting a "was" price that the listing reached only briefly.
What to look for on a chart: a price that sits at the "sale" level most of the time, or a spike just before a big shopping event followed by a "discount" back to the usual level. Either one means the deal is ordinary.
Compare the same thing
A lot of apparent bargains are a different product. Retailers sell last year's model next to this year's, bundle-only versions made for one chain, or the same phone with less storage. Before you compare two prices:
- match the full model number, not the marketing name;
- match color, size, capacity and what's in the box;
- check whether it is new, open-box or refurbished.
The FTC's guidance on comparisons with other stores makes the same point from the seller's side: a higher price "elsewhere" must be real and relevant, and quoting a few small stores whose prices mean nothing to local shoppers is deceptive (16 CFR 233.2).
For anything sold by weight or volume, compare the price per unit. The National Institute of Standards and Technology uses a simple ketchup example: a 32-ounce bottle at $4.99 works out to $0.16 an ounce, while a 14-ounce bottle at $3.19 costs $0.23 an ounce. Unit prices also expose shrinkflation, when the package gets smaller and the price doesn't. Only 11 US jurisdictions require stores to show unit prices, so elsewhere you may have to do the division yourself.
Add up what you actually pay
The price that counts is the one at the end of checkout. Before you decide, add:
- shipping, and the minimum order for free shipping;
- sales tax, which the sticker usually excludes;
- membership fees, if the price needs a paid program;
- accessories the product needs and doesn't include;
- running costs: filters, cartridges, bags, pods, subscriptions.
A robot vacuum or a printer can be cheap to buy and expensive to own. For those, price the consumables before the machine.
Ignore the clock
Urgency is a sales tool, not information. In its 2022 report on manipulative design, the FTC described "countdown timers designed to make consumers believe they only have a limited time to purchase a product or service when the offer is not actually time-limited" (FTC, 2022). The pricing Guides say the same about offers: sellers "should not make a 'limited' offer which, in fact, is not limited" (16 CFR 233.5).
A useful habit: if a page tells you to decide now, wait a day and check the price history. Most deals that vanish come back.
After you buy: returns and price drops
A generous return window turns a deal into a low-risk deal. Policies differ a lot, so read them before you pay, not after.
- Amazon: most items sold on Amazon.com can be returned within 30 days of delivery, with shorter or longer windows for some categories (Amazon returns policy).
- Target: an identical item bought at Target in the past 14 days can be price matched if it is now cheaper on Target.com or at your local Target store; the lower price has to come from Target, and clearance, closeout and refurbished items are excluded (Target Price Match Guarantee).
- Walmart: stores match the price of the identical item advertised on Walmart.com; purchases made on Walmart.com are not price matched (Walmart).
Keep the order confirmation and a screenshot of the price and terms at checkout. If the price drops and the store has a price-adjustment policy, those two things are usually all you need.
A deal worth taking
Put together, a good deal has four features: the price is at or near the lowest in its recent history, the reference is a price the seller really charged, the total cost is still lower once everything is added, and you can return it if it disappoints. If one of the four is missing, it may still be a fine purchase. It just isn't a deal.
Questions shoppers ask
Is a "was" price illegal if the item never sold at that price?
Not automatically. The FTC Guides say a former price isn't fictitious just because nobody bought at it, but it has to be a price the seller openly and actively offered, in good faith, for a reasonably substantial period. A price set high only to announce a big cut later is the case the Guides call deceptive.
What does "compare at" mean?
Usually that the seller is comparing its price with a list price or with other stores. It is a claim by the seller. Check whether principal stores actually charge that price, and look at the item's own price history.
Why do European stores show "lowest price in the last 30 days"?
Because EU law, and the Italian Consumer Code for Italian sellers, requires a price reduction to state the prior price, defined as the lowest price the seller applied in the 30 days before the cut. US stores have no equivalent federal rule.
Are price trackers reliable?
They record what a store displayed at the moments they checked it, which is enough to spot a fake discount. Google's own price insights say they don't predict future prices, and no tracker can.
